巴西右翼首轮得票47%创1989年来最强，自由党夺28个参议院席位

Flávio Bolsonaro Reuters/Ricardo Moraes Brazil’s right posted its strongest first-round presidential result since the country returned to democracy in 1989. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL, Rio de Janeiro) won 47% of valid votes and advanced to the runoff in first place, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT), who took 45.2%, excluding blank and spoiled ballots. Flávio’s share was 3.8 percentage points higher than that of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in 2022 and one point above the Bolsonaro movement’s showing in 2018. The gains also extended well beyond the presidential race. The Liberal Party is set to hold 28 Senate seats, the largest caucus in the chamber, while Bolsonaro supporters or tactical allies of Flávio Bolsonaro won 14 gubernatorial races outright in the first round. That number could rise to 15 depending on an Electoral Court ruling over the vote in Rio de Janeiro. If ballots cast for Anthony Garotinho of the Republicans Party are declared invalid, Douglas Ruas of the Liberal Party will be elected governor. Candidates aligned with Lula secured first-round reelection in only five states. In an unprecedented scenario, gubernatorial runoffs will be held in just seven states — or six, depending on the ruling in Rio de Janeiro. Competition for state governments has not been this limited since 1990. Runoff math The balance of forces between Flávio and Lula looks even more challenging for the president because the lower-polling presidential candidates also lean to the right. Augusto Cury of the Avante Party received 2.9%, Renan Santos of Mission Party took 2.2%, Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) had 2.2%, and Romeu Zema of the New Party won 0.3%. The four minor candidates on the left combined for 0.17%, while minor candidates on the right together received less than 0.1%. This year’s race points to an unprecedented level of polarization in the history of Brazilian presidential elections held under universal, direct and secret suffrage. Candidates outside the two leading camps together received just 7.8%, the lowest share since 1945. In 2022, candidates eliminated in the first round accounted for 8.4%, while in 2006, another highly polarized election, their combined share was 9.5%. Such a narrow field suggests opinion polls are unlikely to show major shifts during the brief runoff campaign, which ends on Oct. 25. Southeast shift The key factor behind the Bolsonaro movement’s late surge was the Southeast, the same region that proved decisive in Jair Bolsonaro’s defeat four years ago. In Minas Gerais, Flávio Bolsonaro won 48.4%, virtually the same share Lula received there four years ago. The president fell to 43.1% in the state, below Jair Bolsonaro’s 43.6% in 2022. In São Paulo, the Bolsonaro camp’s advantage widened to 14 percentage points from seven in the previous presidential election. In Rio de Janeiro, the gap also reached 14 points, up from 11. In Minas Gerais and particularly São Paulo, part of that recovery can be attributed to the strength of Governors Cleitinho Azevedo and Tarcísio de Freitas, both of the Republicans Party. But the right’s strength across the region also proved to have a broader base. Federal lawmaker Nikolas Ferreira of the Liberal Party was reelected in Minas Gerais with an extraordinary 3 million votes, equivalent to about 20% of the state’s eligible electorate. In São Paulo, city councilor Lucas Pavanato, also of the Liberal Party and in some ways a political counterpart to Ferreira, received almost the same number of votes, equivalent to 9% of eligible voters in the state. In Rio de Janeiro, meanwhile, the strength of the Bolsonaro movement lifted Douglas Ruas of the Liberal Party, whose candidacy had struggled to gain traction. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva André Penner/AP Weaker coalition The broader left-wing alliance built around Geraldo Alckmin’s presence on Lula’s ticket, which was crucial in narrowing the gap in the Southeast in 2022, lost momentum. Unlike four years ago, Lula failed to draw opinion leaders and business groups to his campaign. The argument that Flávio Bolsonaro poses a threat to democracy, as Jair Bolsonaro had previously been portrayed, failed to gain traction. Poor approval ratings for the federal government in the region over the course of Lula’s term, particularly after the 2024 municipal elections, also took a toll. Southern setback Rio Grande do Sul was another key state in putting the right ahead. In 2022, the Bolsonaro camp led there by just seven percentage points. This time, the margin widened to 20. In Brazil’s fifth-largest electoral college, the right scored a surprise first-round victory in the gubernatorial race with Luciano Zucco of the Liberal Party, an outcome that had not appeared in any opinion poll. It also won both of the state’s Senate seats. It is the first time since 1974 that the left will have no senator representing Rio Grande do Sul. The state also illustrates Lula’s failure to broaden his coalition. In 2022, Eduardo Leite of the Social Democratic Party won the governorship, the only case in Brazil in which a candidate defeated both the right and the left. Rio Grande do Sul was devastated by a climate disaster in 2024. Instead of building an alliance with Leite, the federal government chose to draw a political distinction, creating an extraordinary ministry to oversee aid to the state and placing it under the control of the Workers’ Party. Abstention pattern Abstention reached 21.07% this year, slightly above the 20.95% four years ago. Contrary to a widely held misconception, abstention was below the national average in percentage terms in the Northeast, where Lula once again won every state. The overall rate was driven higher by Rio de Janeiro, at 23.8%; Mato Grosso do Sul, 23.9%; Minas Gerais, 22.8%; and São Paulo, 22.5% — all states where Flávio Bolsonaro finished first. In 2022, abstention declined between the first and second rounds for the first time in Brazilian history. If that pattern is repeated this year, it would affect strongholds of the Bolsonaro movement. In his speech after the first-round results were announced, Lula said his campaign would work to reduce the number of voters who stay home. Workers’ Party losses The Workers’ Party suffered a broad defeat and emerged from the election far weaker than the president himself. Former Contagem Mayor Marília Campos of Minas Gerais was the party’s only Senate winner across the Southeast, South, North and Center-West, regions accounting for 36 of the 54 seats up for election. PT has increasingly become concentrated in the Northeast. There, it retained the governorships of Bahia, Piauí and Ceará and will contest a runoff in Rio Grande do Norte. It also won both Senate seats in Bahia, reelected Humberto Costa in Pernambuco and Rogério Carvalho in Sergipe, and elected Samanda Alves in Rio Grande do Norte. Elsewhere on the left in the Northeast, Cid Gomes of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) was reelected, while Luizianne Lins of the Sustainability Network, João Azevêdo of the Brazilian Socialist Party and Marília Arraes of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) won seats. Even so, the overall result was limited. Center squeezed Centrist parties less closely aligned with the Bolsonaro movement performed poorly, as expected. The Social Democratic Party fell from 14 senators to just five and lost the governorships of Minas Gerais, Rondônia, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná. The Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) slipped from nine Senate seats to eight. Senator Renan Calheiros of Alagoas failed to win reelection, while lawmaker Roseana Sarney of Maranhão was unsuccessful in her attempt to return to the Senate. Federal lawmaker Aécio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB, Minas Gerais) brought a 40-year parliamentary career — the longest in Congress — to an end after losing the Senate race in Minas Gerais. Former Goiás Governor Marconi Perillo, also of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, finished a distant third. Former Ceará Governor Ciro Gomes of the same party, despite aligning himself with the Bolsonaro camp, failed to return to the state government and has now suffered four consecutive electoral defeats. Among centrist figures, Pernambuco Governor Raquel Lyra of the Social Democratic Party was one of the few to survive. In a tactical alliance with the Bolsonaro movement, she secured reelection after a fiercely contested race against João Campos, national president of the Brazilian Socialist Party.