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Jorge Goetten Vinicius Loures/Câmara dos Deputados Changes to Brazil’s Simples Nacional, a simplified tax regime for small businesses, included in a bill pending in the Chamber of Deputies could reduce social security revenue by R$23.8 billion in 2027 and R$25.9 billion in 2028. If the new rules were already in effect this year, the loss would amount to R$21.7 billion, according to an estimate by the Federal Revenue. The figures do not include the proposed increase in the revenue ceiling for individual microentrepreneurs, known as MEIs. The size of the social security tax break resulting from the proposed changes to Simples was not previously known and highlights the measure’s potential impact on public finances. Experts consulted by Valor said the proposal comes as Brazil already faces a challenging fiscal environment, with mandatory spending rising and revenue struggling to keep pace. The changes would therefore tend to widen the social security deficit. In the fiscal adjustment debate, nothing is what it seems Brazil weighs softer rollout as tax reform testing begins Analysis: Central Bank sees rate policy working, but underscores limits to cuts Beyond the loss of social security revenue, raising the Simples thresholds would also reduce collections from other taxes. Taking all federal taxes into account, the tax break resulting from the changes would amount to R$41.1 billion in 2026, R$45 billion in 2027, and R$48.9 billion in 2028. The calculations reviewed by Valor were prepared at the request of Congressman Jorge Goetten (Republicans), the bill’s rapporteur in the Lower House. He asked the government’s economic team to assess the fiscal impact of revising the Simples Nacional rules. The response was signed by Finance Minister Dario Durigan and sent to the Chamber this month. Goetten argues that revising the Simples thresholds is non-negotiable and should be considered alongside an increase in the MEI revenue ceiling to prevent distortions between the two regimes. The economic team, meanwhile, opposes changes to Simples because of their fiscal impact and has sent Congress a bill providing only for an adjustment to the MEI ceiling. The standoff has prevented the Chamber from taking up the proposal. Against this backdrop, Goetten said the bill is unlikely to be voted on before “the last week of August or after the elections.” The rapporteur met with congressional advisers on Wednesday (12) to review the government’s figures and identified discrepancies. “There’s a lot of information, and a lot of it is very useful. We’re now going through the data. I met with an adviser today; we discussed several points, and now we’re going to conduct our analysis based on this information,” he said. To calculate the impact, the Federal Revenue used the version of the bill approved by the Chamber’s Finance and Taxation Committee. In addition to raising the MEI’s annual revenue ceiling from R$81,000 to R$144,000, with annual adjustments based on the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the committee’s version also raises the revenue thresholds for companies eligible for Simples Nacional. Under the version approved by the committee, the annual revenue ceiling for microenterprises would rise from R$360,000 to R$869,000. For small businesses, the ceiling would increase from R$4.8 million to R$8.6 million. Micro and small businesses are eligible for the Simples Nacional tax regime. To arrive at its estimates, the Federal Revenue modeled which companies could switch tax regimes if the new thresholds were approved. It compared the amount they currently pay with what they would owe under the proposed rules. The tax authority divided the impact into three groups: companies already in Simples that could move into a different revenue bracket; companies currently under the taxable profit tax regime that could switch to Simples; and companies under the presumptive profit regime that could also migrate to the simplified system. Changes to the revenue brackets within Simples would account for most of the loss. The Federal Revenue estimates that social security revenue would fall by R$20.3 billion in 2026, R$22.3 billion in 2027, and R$24.2 billion in 2028. This would happen because some companies would pay less to the National Institute of Social Security (INSS) under the new thresholds and tax tables than they do today. The second category involves companies under the taxable profit regime. The impact on social security revenue in this group would be R$768 million in 2026, R$842 million in 2027, and R$915 million in 2028. For companies currently under the presumptive profit regime, the estimated social security revenue loss would be R$611 million in 2026, R$669 million in 2027, and R$728 million in 2028. Taken together, the three effects would reduce social security revenue by R$21.7 billion in 2026, R$23.8 billion in 2027, and R$25.9 billion in 2028. There would also be a loss of revenue from other taxes that companies would pay less of, but the impact on social security revenue is the largest. According to Leonardo Rolim, a social security specialist and adviser to the Chamber of Deputies, raising the Simples Nacional thresholds would put additional pressure on the social security deficit, which is expected to reach about R$350 billion this year even before the additional revenue loss from the measure is taken into account. Rolim said the social security deficit is already expected to widen in coming years as Brazil’s population ages, increasing the number of retirees and Social Security beneficiaries and, consequently, system expenditures. Lower revenue resulting from the Simples changes would put even more pressure on the system’s finances. “On top of that, we also have real increases in the minimum wage tied to GDP growth, capped at 2.5%, which further widens the deficit because it represents a real increase in spending. Now you’re adding a third factor: lower revenue,” he said. In addition to the Simples changes, the bill approved by the Chamber committee would raise the MEI’s annual revenue ceiling from R$81,000 to R$144,000 in 2026, with adjustments based on the IPCA in subsequent years. The total fiscal impact of this change would be R$2.96 billion in 2026, R$3.37 billion in 2027, and R$3.85 billion in 2028, taking into account the loss of revenue from all taxes. Of those amounts, the portion affecting social security revenue would be R$1.1 billion, R$1.3 billion, and R$1.5 billion, respectively. Social security researcher and specialist Rogério Nagamine said raising the ceiling would further weaken the targeting of the MEI program. “The MEI already has targeting problems under the current ceiling. Raising it will worsen the negative impact of the MEI on the finances of the General Social Security Regime and on the program’s targeting, which is already poor,” he said. José Ronaldo Souza Júnior, a partner at Quantivis Analytics and professor at business school Ibmec, challenged lawmakers’ argument that the measure would merely update the thresholds for inflation. Even if the limits were adjusted according to the inflation index, he said, the measure would amount to a tax break and could increase the need for another social security reform. “This is serious and dangerous from a policy and fiscal standpoint. It isn’t sustainable, regardless of whether there is another social security reform, but it brings forward the need for a new overhaul,” he said. “It’s a very large tax break at a time when we simply don’t have room for this kind of measure. That’s what I find most serious,” he added. Including both the Simples and MEI changes, the total tax break estimated by the Federal Revenue under the version approved by the committee would reach R$44 billion in 2026, R$48.4 billion in 2027, and R$52.8 billion in 2028. In the document sent to the bill’s rapporteur, the Federal Revenue said that, without measures to offset the revenue loss, the bill would be incompatible with Brazil’s Fiscal Responsibility Law and Budgetary Guidelines Law. The tax authority did not respond to Valor’s request for comment before publication.